Cross posted here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qLMnvPxy6HukPc9zy/ea-a-more-powerful-future-than-expected
When I talk with most people about what EA will look like in 20 years, I generally get a bunch of blank stares and confused looks. Or a, “Will EA even be around that long?” It’s a question that people don’t have a [cached answer](<https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2MD3NMLBPCqPfnfre/cached-thoughts>) to yet. I’d like to propose that we take a look and start with an outside view. To start, let’s talk numbers. EA has around [40 billion](<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zA6AnNnYBwuokF8kB/is-effective-altruism-growing-an-update-on-the-stock-of>) of assets.[[1]](<https://www.notion.so/nothingherea/Archive-0c22cb5e66704849ab7e6f13ac431bc4?p=4d53701241cb45fc8557aead4d9b313f#fnl75wp1t73wk>) As a point of comparison, all the think tanks in the entire US have a budget of ~2 billion a year. The entire 2016 election, including both the races for congress and the presidential election, cost [~7 billion](<https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/cost-of-election?cycle=2020&display=T&infl=N>).[[2]](<https://www.notion.so/nothingherea/Archive-0c22cb5e66704849ab7e6f13ac431bc4?p=4d53701241cb45fc8557aead4d9b313f#fnvkdsjx43p7>) So yeah. All those special interest groups and think tanks that people complain so much about? We could fund them all for a few years.[[3]](<https://www.notion.so/nothingherea/Archive-0c22cb5e66704849ab7e6f13ac431bc4?p=4d53701241cb45fc8557aead4d9b313f#fnwbqpk4d4ro>)
The ideology. EA is a really successful meme, in the Richard Dawkins sense of the word. To be a successful meme you need to prioritize self-replication . And would you look at that. On the front of [80,000 hours](<https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/promoting-effective-altruism/>), a top priority cause is spreading the ideas of EA. Furthermore, the EA meme is sticky and adaptable in a way that most current political fashions aren’t. EA’s entire MO is Doing The Most Good. How does one beat that memetically? Say you have a good argument on why EA isn’t actually doing the most good. Cool. The movement just [pivots](<https://80000hours.org/2015/07/80000-hours-thinks-that-only-a-small-proportion-of-people-should-earn-to-give-long-term/>) toward that new idea. And pivots [again](<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/longtermism>).[[4]](<https://www.notion.so/nothingherea/Archive-0c22cb5e66704849ab7e6f13ac431bc4?p=4d53701241cb45fc8557aead4d9b313f#fn39g609otsq7>) And then just because, EA hires [a red team](<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fx8pWSLKGwuqsfuRQ/pre-announcing-a-contest-for-critiques-and-red-teaming>) to attack the ideas some more. Unless we begin to see a large number of people saying they don’t want to do good in the world, the EA meme is here to stay.
Next. EA is getting a hilarious amount of really smart, really young people interested in EA. If you go to any top ranked college and find the most ambitious and thoughtful people, you run into EA’s constantly. Currently the effects of this hasn’t been noticed, but give it 20 years. Once you have a bunch of EA aligned people in the highest ranks of society, things will begin to happen. Tyler Cowen has already said something to this [effect.](<https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/03/effective-altruism-is-and-will-be-more-influential-than-you-think.html>) Just as evidence of how strong the EA meme is, here’s a quote from the Wikipedia page. [“Famous philanthropists influenced by effective altruism include Bill and Melinda Gates, Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried, Peter Thiel, Dan Smith, and Liv Boeree."](<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism>) Most movements couldn’t come up with a list half that prestigious, and that’s ironic considering how much this community looks down on prestigious signaling and thumbs our nose at prestige in general.
Another thing is that EA (or the subculture rationality) has already had pretty massive indirect political power through [here.](<https://putanumonit.com/2021/04/03/monastery-and-throne/>) Sadly, this is no longer the case because of reasons, but this looks like strong evidence of what’s to come. If you aren't shocked by this, take a second to rethink what was just said. You're part of a movement that was able to have real influence in deciding how 67million Briton would get to live for the next year.
And get this. EA is still [growing](<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zA6AnNnYBwuokF8kB/is-effective-altruism-growing-an-update-on-the-stock-of>). At **10%** a year! Keep that up for any length of time, and compound growth will work its magic. This might be the biggest point. EA is growing at **10% a year**.[[5]](<https://www.notion.so/nothingherea/Archive-0c22cb5e66704849ab7e6f13ac431bc4?p=4d53701241cb45fc8557aead4d9b313f#fnhmzmve6v2ah>) These accomplishments I've pointed to aren't the height of EA. It's foreshadowing of what's to come. As long as EA doesn't overreach, or dissolve due to political infighting, or any of the other many ways that movements stumble and die, the future of EA might be much stronger than most realize.
TLDR: If I was to tell you about a movement that:
I’d hazard a guess that the movement is already very powerful, or would quickly become so.
Mainly I don't think I'm presenting new information here. Most people in EA circles already know everything I've said. It's just they've [compartmentalized](<https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/compartmentalization>) each piece. If you put it all together, a vastly different picture begins to form.
I’d hazard a guess that we’re here:
Welcome. It (might just) be the case that you’re at the ground floor of a movement that will find itself in the history books.