https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/480/421/#431
The § 243(h) "clear probability" standard of proof does not govern asylum applications under § 208(a). Pp. 480 U. S. 427-449. (a) The plain meaning of the statutory language indicates a congressional intent that the proof standards under §§ 208(a) and 243(h) should differ. Section 243(h)'s "would be threatened" standard has no subjective component, but, in fact, requires objective evidence that it is more likely than not that the alien will be subject to persecution upon deportation. In contrast, § 208(a)'s reference to "fear" makes the asylum eligibility determination turn to some extent on the alien's subjective mental state, and the fact that the fear must be "well founded" does not transform the standard into a "more likely than not" one. Moreover, the different emphasis of the two standards is highlighted by the fact that, although Congress simultaneously drafted § 208(a)'s new standard and amended § 243(h), it left § 243(h)'s old standard intact. Pp. 480 U. S. 430-432.
More than 50% chance of an event taking place (more likely than not)
or
A 10% chance of being shot, tortured, or otherwise persecuted. (subjective fear)
fear
Would be threatened